As Pfizer and Moderna receive the FDA nod for COVID-19 boosters, their 2023 global sales projections appear to be just a fraction of the previous year’s. In 2022, Pfizer and its partner BioNTech jointly sold $56 billion worth of their Comirnaty COVID-19 vaccine, marking the best-selling drug of the year. Moderna’s Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine wasn’t far behind, registering sales of $18.4 billion, signifying the fifth best-selling drug.
After the FDA nod for COVID-19 boosters, market projections remain subdued
Demand for COVID-19 vaccines, however, appears to be relatively weak, a reality reflected in revenue guidance from Pfizer and Moderna. The former announced in its Q2 2023 revenue guidance that it projects its COVID-19 vaccine sales of approximately $13.5 billion — a 64% slide from its respective 2022 global sales of $37.8 billion. Meanwhile, Moderna expects its 2023 COVID-19 vaccine sales in the range of $6 billion to $8 billion.
A simple linear regression model reached similar projections — projecting $13.6 billion in cumulative vaccine sales for Pfizer and $7 billion for Moderna. The model considered global vaccination rates from Our World in Data, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and previous company financial reports. The model accounted for global vaccination rates, the trajectory of the pandemic, government policies, market competition, and projected hospitalizations.
The new monovalent boosters target the omicron XBB.1.5 subvariant. This particular subvariant of COVID-19, which evolved from the BA.2 omicron subvariant, has mutations that increase its transmissibility over older variants.
The bar graph below highlights the delta between the 2022 COVID-19 vaccine sales and the 2023 projections for Pfizer and Moderna. Sales figures are in billions of USD. Results show the tally from the linear regression model rather than the company’s own estimates mentioned above.
Vaccine makers face share price slides post-approval
Pfizer and Moderna both saw stock drops after announcing the approval of their latest COVID-19 vaccines. For example, Moderna’s share price fell 1.71% today to $105.80. COVID-19 vaccines is the company’s only commercialized product. On the other hand, Pfizer shares fell 0.91% today, bringing its closing price to $33.94.
Novavax, which is also developing a novel protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, saw a steeper tumble — almost 13% — as the FDA nod for Pfizer and Moderna gives them a head start in the market. The stock closed at $7.82, a far cry from its all-time high of $289.72 on February 12, 2021.
The company is planning to present vaccine data to a CDC advisory panel on Tuesday.