COVID-19
COVID-19 is mutating. And while early data suggest vaccines will be effective against more infectious COVID-19 variants that emerged in the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, the mutations could have a measurable impact on vaccine efficacy.
There’s perhaps a 50/50 chance that such new variants could lead to a “numerically meaningful drop” in vaccine efficacy, said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology, in a UBS briefing call.
The Moderna (NSDQ:MRNA) and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) vaccines promise 95% efficacy at reducing symptomatic disease when it comes to the SARS-CoV-2 strains that were dominant in 2020. But it’s plausible the efficacy number could drop to 85% or beyond. “I am definitely not saying that the vaccines would be non-functional anymore or would drop to less than 50% efficacy,” Crotty said.
While Pfizer recently released data suggesting their vaccine w…